By Ed Morrone
This is why picking NFL games against the spread is so difficult. When teams like Cleveland, the Jets and Houston all win on the road, and others like Buffalo and Tennessee almost knock off potential Super Bowl teams. I’ll give it to Michael Vick, though-he even surprised me this week. I called the Falcons’ road loss in Detroit the week before, but crapping the bed at home against Cleveland? Mr. Vick, I truly am in awe. As for the Colts, I don’t understand how people are pegging them as Super Bowl champs. Either they aren’t as good as everyone says, or they just play down to the competition, considering the one-point home wins against the Titans and Bills (combined record of 5-13). Either way, banking on Peyton Manning in a big game is still as dangerous as cutting yourself and then swimming in a pool of sharks. Here are five things I learned in Week 10:
1) The Chargers are still the team to beat in the AFC. They got down 28-7 in Cincinnati and all they did was put up 42 points in the second half. Forty-two! Philip Rivers is maturing a lot faster than anyone thought he would, and oh yeah, that LaDainian Tomlinson guy is pretty good too.2) Despite a tough loss to the Steelers in Pittsburgh, the Saints will still make the playoffs. Drew Brees is playing like an MVP right now and would have sent that game into overtime had his receiver not fumbled inside the Pittsburgh 25. Should have thrown to Colston, Drew! Regardless, New Orleans will be playing in January, even if Carolina does leapfrog them.3) I crowned Tom Brady as king of the NFL a little too soon I guess. Two weeks after I wrote a glowing column about how money Brady is, he’s rewarded my good faith with four interceptions against Indy and a shocking loss to the Jets. Guess I just have that effect on people.4) The NFC East is still up for grabs, thanks to the G-Men giving up after Jay Feely’s missed field goal-turned-108-yard-touchdown runback by Devin Hester. How on earth does Tom Coughlin call for a 52-yard field goal there to begin with? He lost them the game and will keep them from going anywhere in the playoffs should they make it there. Terrible coach.5) You can always count on the Redskins to help your team bounce back from three gut-wrenching losses. Thank you, Daniel Snyder, you have built a phenomenal organization. Onto the games…
GAMES OF THE WEEK
San Diego (7-2) +2.5 at Denver (7-2): Denver is impossible to figure out. They almost lose to the league’s worst teams (Oakland twice, Cleveland) but play off the charts against teams like Indy, New England and Baltimore. I love the way the Chargers are playing right now and if they can go into Denver and win on primetime TV, they truly are the AFC’s best. Pick: Chargers
Indianapolis (9-0) -1 at Dallas (5-4): Lord forgive me, but I’m picking the Cowboys to knock off the NFL’s final undefeated team. The ‘Boys have just looked so much better with Romo in there, and T.O. is catching the ball too. The Colts won’t be able to run the ball against Dallas’ defense and considering they can’t stop the run either, Julius Jones will keep Indy’s D out of it. Again, Lord forgive me for this. Pick: Cowboys
THE REST
Atlanta (5-4) +4 at Baltimore (7-2): Vick against good defenses always makes for good entertainment, and Baltimore’s is one of the best. Pick: Ravens
Buffalo (3-6) +2 at Houston (3-6): You’ve gotta give it to Buffalo for almost knocking off Indy, but the Texans are a much better bad team. Pick: Texans
Chicago (8-1) -7 at N.Y. Jets (5-4): The Jets looked solid in shocking New England, but the Bears are 4-0 on the road, including winning at the Meadowlands last week. This one shouldn’t be a problem. Pick: Bears
Cincinnati (4-5) +3.5 at New Orleans (6-3): These are two teams heading in completely opposite directions. Pick: Saints
Minnesota (4-5) +3.5 at Miami (3-6): Who would’ve thought that the Dolphins would play better with Joey Harrington under center than Daunte Culpepper? Pick: Dolphins
New England (6-3) -6 at Green Bay (4-5): You know things are going bad when the big mid-week highlight is your team signed Vinny Testaverde as a backup quarterback. Still, I can’t see Brady losing to this defense. Pick: Patriots
Oakland (2-7) +10 at Kansas City (5-4): Poor Randy Moss, he can’t catch balls in Oakland because he’s too sad and upset. What a joke. Pick: Chiefs
Pittsburgh (3-6) -3.5 at Cleveland (3-6): Pittsburgh’s attempt to save the season might have come a week or two too late. Still, if the NFC North basement belongs to anybody, it’s Cleveland. Pick: Steelers
St. Louis (4-5) +7 at Carolina (5-4): Poor St. Louis…they lost to Seattle twice on last-second field goals, pretty much losing them the NFC West. Marc Bulger has been spectacular this season, but Carolina is scary this time of year. Pick: Panthers
Tennessee (2-7) +13 at Philadelphia (5-4): Here’s the bad thing about the Eagles bouncing back last week: they gave me hope again. Sigh…Pick: Eagles
Washington (3-6) +3 at Tampa Bay (2-7): Jason Campbell is a better alternative at QB than Mark Brunell, and he picked a good team to get his first start against. Pick: Redskins
Detroit (2-7) +2 Arizona (1-8): Could the Cardinals actually win one this week? This is probably their best shot left. Pick: Cardinals
Seattle (6-3) PK at San Francisco (4-5): Shaun Alexander and/or Matt Hasselbeck should be back for this one, so San Fran’s mini-run stops right here. The Niners are no longer the league’s laughingstock, though. They’re getting there. Pick: Seahawks
N.Y. Giants (6-3) +3.5 at Jacksonville (5-4): The walking wounded vs. the walking enigma. Your guess is as good as mine. Pick: Giants
Tony Roma and the Cowboys seek a pre-Thanksgiving feast against the Colts.