By Brendan O’Reilly
As I put finals and term papers behind me, I look forward to my summer job. I am the archery director at an overnight camp. For over eight weeks, I will be too busy shooting arrows at targets to concern myself with politics and global affairs. It is relieving to take a break from The New York Times, the Internet and television. There is so much one can miss after two months of minimal news consumption. I ponder what I will miss over the summer and the state I will find the world in when I emerge from the seclusion of camp at the end of August.
I do not expect the issue of immigration to have been resolved on Capitol Hill. Politicians have more to benefit by dragging the debate into the midterm election season. They need polarizing issues to get voters out to the polls. Of course, some politicians want to keep certain voters away from the polls. The Los Angeles Times reported on May 8 that a group of House Republicans is encouraging other congressmen to let parts of the 1965 Voting Rights Act expire. They are seeking to eliminate the provisions for bilingual ballots and language assistance from the reauthorization. When the president says he wants to promote democracy worldwide and his own party members want to restrict it at home, it is no wonder that his approval rating is nearly sub-freezing.
There are only two ways I foresee Bush’s job approval rating improving significantly before the fall semester starts. One is a public victory in the war on terror. Capturing Osama bin Laden or Abu Musab al-Zarqawi would put Bush’s rating up at least 10 points overnight. The second way is a foolhardy attempt by the Democrats to impeach President Bush.
Between illegal domestic wiretapping, ignoring laws he signed himself and revealing classified information for political purposes, Bush would seem like a prime target for impeachment. However, it would backfire on the Democrats, as it did on Republicans in 1998. When they impeached Bill Clinton, it was great for his job approval rating. There are many Americans out there who think Bush is terrible at nearly everything he does, but will still defend him when he comes under fire from Democrats and liberals. I do not expect an attempt at impeachment to happen, since the Democrats do not have the votes in the House.
It is more likely that Bush’s lull will continue past the midterm elections. House Republicans are more concerned about getting reelected than standing by their president. Until his party members in the House are secure for another two years, they will not stand up and defend Bush. Going in front of television cameras and saying “The president is doing a great job,” is the equivalent of saying, “Please, don’t vote for me!”
When commuters drive to their first class of the fall semester they will wish they had carpooled. Gas prices will continue to dominate newspaper headlines and discussions on cable news stations. States and the federal government will increase subsidies for alternative fuel and hybrid cars and approve temporary relief of gasoline taxes. Gas prices will near $4 on the east coast this summer anyway. The Senate will fail to approve new domestic oil refineries and attempts to approve a windfall profits tax on the oil industry will fail.