By Tim Robertson
Just wash away any of that ridiculous rhetoric of Dan’s and let’s get down to business. For starters, this “home field advantage” garbage didn’t hold true in June when Colorado slapped Boston around to take two of three, so why would it now?
Red Sox Nation can talk all they want about their offense, but a closer look into stats that matter paint a different picture.
Sure J.D. “The Injured One” Drew ripped a first-inning granny against the Tribe in game six, but the former Dodger – which means plenty of appearances at Coors – is .259 against the Rockies’ pitching staff with two homers in 54 at-bats.
Big Papi’s bat shrinks against Colorado, as he brings in a .208 average against the Rox staff, and Mike Lowell, the former Marlin, bats .256 against Colorado with a pair of homers in 43 at-bats.
Out of the big hitters, Manny sports the only respectable average against the Rockies, .366, but hasn’t hit a bomb in 41 at-bats.
On the other side of the dish, Rockies batters have hit game one starter Josh Beckett well. MVP front-runner Matt Holliday is 6-for-14 with a double, triple, homer and a pair of RBIs. Garrett Atkins – notice how for Rockies players I have to use first and last names – is 6-for-10 against the probably AL Cy Young with a grand slam back in June. Met reject Kaz Matsui is 4-for-11, and Todd Helton is 4-for-12 with a homer and a pair of walks.
It’s quite obvious that the Rockies offense does much better against Boston than visa versa. In fact, the only Boston pitcher this year – out of Schilling, Beckett and Wakefield – to shut down the Rockies is Wakefield, but because of a “shoulder injury” the knuckleballer was left off the roster. More like his signature pitch would float high in the strike zone in the thin air of Denver.
Boston’s Sunday starter, John Lester, hasn’t started a game since the end of September, tossed 3.2 innings of relief against the Angels and allowed two runs for an unimpressive 4.91 ERA. A rusty pitcher on the road spells disaster for the BoSox.
Colorado brings in the game’s best defense – 13 fewer errors than their World Series opponent – and the National League’s best ERA in the second half, at 3.86.
Moving away from pure stats – as if I need to continue – the Rockies bring in one of the hottest winning streaks of all time. No team has won 21 of 22 leading into the World Series, and only two teams have won more than 10 straight heading into the championship, the 1960 Yanks and the 1970 Orioles.
The other fact is that Francona will have to plug in Ortiz in Denver, won’t he? So will he take out red-hot Youk, or powerful Lowell. Either way, whether it’s Ortiz, Youk or Lowell that grabs some pine at Mile High, the Red Sox will be without a big bat for three straight games. I can’t wait to watch Dice-K hit!
Colorado’s eight days off has given them plenty of time to rest the pen, relax and push away the nerves of making their first Series in their 15 years of history. The Red Sox, on the other hand, held an optional practice on Monday, with a few players missing, and others moving a little slow, according to a Newsday article. While the Rockies will try to get over their lay over, the Red Sox might need to get over their hangover.
(The following statement could already be 100 percent correct, 200 percent correct, or just absolutely wrong, it’s not my fault this is a weekly paper.) The Rockies, with their history against Beckett and Schilling, will take at least one game, possibly two. As the series shifts to the Mile High city, the cold weather, lack of a designated hitter and familiarity with an odd ballpark will play into the Rockies hands.
Colorado in five. Too bad for me. They were 100-to-1 odds to win the World Series back in April. That 10 grand could almost pay for my Hofstra tuition.