By Vincent Mercogliano
The 2007 Major League Baseball season has come to an end and if the late season dramatics are any indication, we are in for quite an October. It has been a memorable season packed with storylines and milestones. We saw the controversial Barry Bonds break Hank Aaron’s all-time Home Run record, perhaps the most coveted record in all of sports. We saw Tom Glavine become the 23rd pitcher to ever reach the 300 win plateau, a mark many experts feel may never be accomplished again. We saw Alex Rodriguez become the youngest player ever to hit 500 home runs. We saw Trevor Hoffman break the all-time saves record. It has been without question, from an historic standpoint, a season to remember. But it has also been an improbable and unpredictable season, one in which many experts have been proven wrong.
For starters, let’s look at the four National League Playoff teams: the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Philadelphia Phillies, the Chicago Cubs and the Colorado Rockies. These are not the teams many people in April predicted would be playing in October, such as the New York Mets and defending champion St. Louis Cardinals. The Phillies and the Rockies come as unexpected last minute additions and both teams saved their best for last. The Phillies, making their first playoff appearance since 1993, trailed the Mets in the NL East all season but hung around and eventually took advantage when the Mets faltered. The Mets had a seven game lead with 17 left to play, but saw it vanish in one of the greatest collapses in Major League history. The Rockies went unnoticed all season while playing in the most competitive division in baseball, the NL West. But they got hot at the right time winning 14 of their final 15 to force a one game playoff with the San Diego Padres for the NL Wild Card berth. They went on to comeback from an 8-6 deficit in the 13th inning and clinch their first playoff berth since 1995.
The American League on the other hand had all four playoff teams clinch before a single National League team did. The four playoff teams, the Boston Red Sox, the Cleveland Indians, the Los Angeles Angels and the New York Yankees, emerged at the end of the season as the powerhouses of not only the American League, but all of baseball. All four teams had a better record than any National League team and left little to be decided in the final weeks other than playoff opponents. Now, after an exciting regular season it’s time for the real season to begin. Here’s an outlook on what to expect.
NLDS
Diamondbacks vs. Cubs
The Diamondbacks surprisingly finished with the best record in the National League, ensuring them homefield advantage. More surprising though was the fact that they finished with more total runs allowed (732) than runs scored (712), which doesn’t exactly make them the favorite to reach the World Series. It’s no secret they didn’t make the playoffs as a result of their offense, which lacks a true All-Star caliber run producer. The D-Backs win because they are a scrappy team who finds ways to hurt you, and they have an excellent bullpen to finish a team off. The Cubs have a much more intimidating offense, led by their Big 3: Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. This could pose a serious problem for the D-Backs if a game ever turns into a slug fest and they’re forced to play catch up. Another key for the Cubs will be starting pitching. They match-up well with Diamondback ace, Brandon Webb whom they will counter with their own ace, Carlos Zambrano. Beyond the two aces, I think the Cubs compare favorably with the rest of the Diamondback rotation. Cub pitcher’s Ted Lilly, Rich Hill and Jason Marquis are all coming off career years and compare very favorably with Diamondback pitcher’s Doug Davis, Livan Hernandez and Micah Owings. In fact I’ll give the Cubs the edge in starting pitching and in the end the Cubs will have too much offense and just enough pitching for the Diamondbacks to keep up with.
Prediction: Cubs in 4
Phillies vs. Rockies
This series matches the two hottest teams in the National League. Both played excellent baseball down the stretch to earn themselves a spot in the postseason. Both teams are also very good offensive ball clubs. The Rockies might not have a bunch of household names in their lineup, but they can put up runs in a hurry, led by MVP-hopeful Matt Holliday. If any team can top the Rockies offensively though, it is the Phillies. They have the reigning NL MVP in Ryan Howard, the best second baseman in baseball in Chase Utley and leading MVP candidate for this season in Jimmy Rollins. That’s not too shabby. What the Phillies do lack is pitching. Beyond young ace Cole Hamels there is not much else. The bullpen has been shaky and the rotation has been decimated by injuries. The Rockies have a very underrated pitching staff but it still does not rank among the league’s best. They will match 17-game winner Jeff Francis against Hamels in Game 1, but based on talent alone I’d have to give Hamels the edge. If they can get a strong performance out of Hamels to go ahead in the series and the offense continues on its recent hot streak, the Phillies will be tough to beat.
Prediction: Phillies in 5
ALDS
Angels vs. Red Sox
This is a classic power vs. speed match-up which will see the two most consistent teams this season in the American League go at it. The Angels are a scrappy team that scores runs by applying pressure on the other team’s defense and has an excellent pitching staff, perhaps the best in baseball. The Red Sox are led by the most feared 3-4 hitters in baseball: David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. They also have potential Cy Young winner Josh Beckett leading their rotation. There are some questions surrounding Ramirez entering the postseason because he has not played in weeks due to injury, but I would not count him out. Early in the season Boston relied on pitching with an excellent starting rotation and the 1-2 punch of Hideki Okajima and Jonathan Papelbon to finish teams off. Recently the pitching has not been as overpowering with first year starter Daisuke Matsuzaka and veteran Curt Schilling experiencing ups and downs and the bullpen, which was supposed to be a strength after the addition of Eric Gagne, showing vulnerability. I think the Angels compare well because they can counter Beckett, Dice-K and Schilling with Cy Young candidates John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, plus the emerging young hurler, Jered Weaver. They should limit the damage from Ortiz and Ramirez enough to get to Angels’ closer Francisco Rodriguez, who has valuable postseason experience, unlike Papelbon. As long as the Angels can consistently challenge the Red Sox defensively and their best player, Vladimir Guerrero, provides some production, I give the Angels a slight edge.
Prediction: Angels in 5
Yankees vs. Indians
The headlines, for better or for worse, will focus on Yankees’ star Alex Rodriguez’s performance in this series. A-Rod’s performance will be magnified, perhaps unfairly, but he has been put in a good position to succeed. The Yankees swept their season series with the Indians, 6-0, and A-Rod had six home runs and 13 RBIs, so he has had recent success against their pitching staff. In fact, the Yankees’ entire team hit well against Cleveland, posting a .348 batting average, while the Indians only hit .228 against Yankee pitching. Cleveland does have two Cy Young caliber starters in C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, but the Yankees have the most potent lineup in all of baseball. They had five players: A-Rod, Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada, with more than 90 RBIs. And oh by the way, they have a pretty good shortstop. The Indians counter with their own younger, but nonetheless strong offense which includes Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez. They are very capable of putting up runs, so the Yankees will have problems if their offense suddenly cools off. But if the Yankees score like they have been in the second half of the season, I think 19-game winner Chien-Ming Wang and 4-time World Champion Andy Pettitte should be able to match Cleveland’s top two.
Also I would give the edge to Yankees’ Game 3 starter Roger Clemens over the Indians’ Jake Westbrook. Clemens will at the very least keep the Yankees close enough to give them a chance to win, even if he is not overpowering. And don’ forget the good thing they have going at the backend of the bullpen with Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera. Cleveland closer Joe Borowski had a 5.07 ERA and gave up a walk-off home run to A-Rod on April 19.
Prediction: Yankees in 4