By Dave Diamond
A Chronicle colleague used his editorial spot last week to explain just how wonderful the NHL playoffs can be, and hockey fans are getting a double treat this year. Not only will the post-season be competitive, but also the finish to the regular season, particularly in the Eastern Conference, is one of the closest in history. Six teams are battling for the final three spots to compete for the Stanley Cup in mid April, who could ask for more? Considering the next time print hits this newspaper’s pages will be long after the postseason has begun, it is the perfect time to pull out the crystal ball and project which three teams are in, and which are going home. My following projections are not based on talent alone, but by upcoming schedule, trends, injuries, etc. A few games from now, we will see how accurate I am. WHO’S IN
Carolina Hurricanes: (Currently 9th- 84 pts.) The defending Stanley Cup Champs are on the outside looking in, which is a concern for the team expected to be just as good, if not better than last year. Built to be a playoff team, the ‘Canes have gone 6-3-1 in their last 10 as the games grow more important, outscoring opponents 30-19 in that span. More good news is their remaining schedule, which features two games with Tampa Bay (3-2-1 against the Lightning this season) and a final battle with the inexperienced Thrashers. Expect Carolina to turn it on now as veterans Justin Williams, Eric Staal and captain Rod Brind’Amour smell the postseason. They will not catch Atlanta, but might match-up against them in the 3-6 series, which is bad news for the Thrashers.
New York Rangers: (Currently 6th seed- 87 pts.) So many things were going well for this team as they impressively made it back into playoff contention. Then they reformed to blowing 2-0 leads in just as impressive fashion last Tuesday in Montreal. The Rangers, before that crucial loss, were 14-4-5 in their last 23 and are only now getting the best of Brenden Shanahan back from injury. Unfortunately, their defense is just horrific with the injuries to both Karel Rachunek and Fedor Tyutin. And remember, Jason Strudwick is not available to play in the postseason. They peaked at the right time and will make the playoffs, likely as the seventh seed. However, this team is going to struggle mightily if they allow opponents to barrage Henrik Lundqvist with point-blank shots.
Tampa Bay Lightning: (Currently 7th seed- 86 pts.) They should grab that eight spot because of their amount of wins. The Lightning have zero goaltending, as Johan Holmqvist is way too inconsistent, but they do have a couple of x-factors. Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis are phenomenal offensive weapons, and Tampa Bay gets enough goals to combat its defensive mistakes and force at least a point for reaching overtime. In the playoffs, however, points do not matter, and they better find a way to stop the puck, because they will not outscore Buffalo in a first-round series, nor will New Jersey allow them to score at will.
WHO’S OUT
New York Islanders: (Currently 11th- 84 pts.) The silver lining to Rick DiPietro’s headache troubles is that he has plenty of time to rest. The Islanders do not play again until Friday night, three days after their 3-2 loss to New Jersey. There are two things working against the Isles, and the first is obvious. This is a different team without DiPietro. The defense seems to collapse when he is not there to make great saves, and this team sure could use Radek Martinek back because their defensive depth behind Witt and Hill is not enough to make a playoff run. The other issue is technical, but likely their demise. I expect them to finish close to, or in a tie, with Tampa Bay for that eight seed. If that happens, the Islanders would have about three less victories than the Lightning. The Isles grabbed many of their points from overtime losses, whereas Tampa usually wins or losses, period. The main tiebreaker for teams with the same number of points is wins, and the Isles just do not have enough.
Montreal Canadiens: (Currently 8th seed- 86 pts.) They still have four games against playoff contenders to play, and only one of them at home, which just happens to be top-seeded Buffalo. Everyone will go crazy about their offensive explosion against the Rangers Tuesday night, but do not be fooled. Everyone beats the Rangers that way. They have really played well, having won five in a row, but to continue winning in places such as Ottawa and Toronto, and a rematch with an angry Rangers team at the Garden makes this a really tough scenario for the Habs.
Toronto Maple Leafs: (Currently 10th- 84 pts.) This is just a disaster waiting to happen. They are the New York Yankees of hockey in regards to media scrutiny. There is so much pressure put on Toronto at these times, if not always. Their remaining schedule is brutal: Atlanta, Pittsburgh, the Rangers and Islanders, and Montreal still left to play. And with each opposing goal, the pressure mounts. Not exactly an ideal situation for such an inconsistent team. After two losses, they may give in to what will be a media landslide for sure.
The Carolina Hurricanes, defending Stanley Cup Champions, need a late-season surge to make the playoffs.