By Samuel Rubenfeld
Barack Obama took the lead by capturing independents in the second poll of suburban voters by the University’s National Center for Suburban Studies.
The poll, released Wednesday, gave Obama an eight point lead over John McCain amongst registered suburban voters, 47 percent to 39 percent. The poll surveyed 1,000 suburban voters, between Oct. 22 and Oct. 26, with a margin of error of four points. The survey also polled 503 urban and rural residents, who, when combined with the overall total, give the poll a 3 percent margin of error. Princeton Survey Research Associates International designed and conducted the poll for the NCSS.
The overall poll has the national race with Obama holding a 10-point lead, 48 percent to 38 percent, among registered voters.
Among suburban likely voters, a much more accurate measure than registered voters, the race is much closer, with Obama holding only a three-point lead, 46 percent to 43 percent. Likely voters across the nation give Obama an eight-point lead: 48 percent to 40 percent.
“Against a backdrop of growing economic pain in suburbia, Barack Obama has surged past John McCain among suburban ‘swing’ voters who usually decide national elections,” Lawrence C. Levy, executive director of the NCSS, said in the release announcing the poll. “McCain needs the suburbs if he is to mount a comeback in the final week of the campaign.”
In the first suburban poll, conducted in September, McCain held a six-point lead, 48 percent to 42 percent. Partisans essentially held their support, but independents moved strongly towards Obama. McCain had led among suburban independents by a 46 percent to 38 percent margin, but they reversed, and Obama now leads 45 percent to 37 percent among independents, with 5 percent saying they won’t vote and 5 percent undecided.
“We’re continuing to fight for suburban voters and this is the demographic that’s going to carry McCain to victory on Nov. 4,” said Peter Feldman, a regional campaign spokesman.
The financial crisis is now the major issue facing suburban voters. Voters were split about how they felt about their finances: half said they were doing well or excellent, the other half said they are in poor or fair shape. But in September, those with a positive outlook preferred McCain by 18 points, but his lead amongst this demographic shrunk to 11 points. Among those who are under economic pressure, suburban voters gave Obama a 10-point lead in September but the lead bounced to 30 points in the new poll.
Half of registered voters believe their financial situation will improve some or a lot, while only 29 percent believe it will get a little, or much, worse.
Suburban voters do not like the $700 billion bailout plan. Half of them believe the federal government is only looking to help Wall Street and the banks, while 35 percent believe the measure is an attempt to rescue the whole economy. More suburban Republicans believe it will help the economy than do Democrats, a direct contradiction to the initial rejection of the bill by House Republicans.
The gender gap, according to the poll, has also closed. In September, McCain held suburban men by an 11-point margin. Now Obama leads among suburban men by eight points, 46 percent to 38 percent. Amongst suburban women, Obama now leads by eight points.
“Voters believe Sen. Obama will give them the change they need,” said Shin Inouye, an Obama spokesman.