By David Gibb

The sound of sabers rattling in Japan can already be heard as far as The Big Apple, and at this point it seems only a matter of time before either Japan or the U.S. makes a swift, damaging attack on the other.

I’m talking about baseball, of course.

Most baseball fans in this country think of the Land of the Rising Sun as a place where we send our “Four-A” hitters (Crash Davis types who have mastered hitting in the minors, but seem to lack the skill or polish to play in The Show) to go crush home runs and have careers. American scouts and writers constantly remind fans that the Japanese game is more predicated on style than power, emphasizing contact hitting and junkball-style pitching. The average American perceives Japanese baseball much the same way they do Joaquin Phoenix: as a younger, inferior version of something perfect.

The only other thing most people know about Japanese baseball is that occasionally it produces very, very talented Major League players. Be it Matsui or Matsuzaka, Nomo or Ichiro, skilled Japanese players are at the heart of some of the best teams in the Majors.

One Japanese player who could have a huge impact on this side of the Pacific is a 22-year-old pitcher named Junichi Tazawa. Reports vary, but anywhere between three and eight Major League teams have been scouting him quite aggressively. Tazawa clearly appreciates the attention from the American scouts, as he has asked the 12 teams in Nippon Professional Baseball (also known as NPB or sometimes simply “the J-League”) not to draft him, as he would rather seek employment in the United States.

It sounds like pretty cut and dried capitalism, but the fact of the matter is that the Tazawa situation could ruin a 46-year-old relationship between MLB and NPB. Back in 1962, the two leagues established a handshake agreement to ensure that both organizations maintained regional supremacy. To assure the strength of both leagues, it was agreed that no Japanese team would draft an American amateur player, and no American team would draft a Japanese native. Tazawa is a Japanese amateur, and as such out-of-bounds for American teams according to the so-called “Gentlemen’s Agreement.”

However, after witnessing the success of Daisuke Matsuzaka in the Majors, it is hard to blame teams for having such great interest in Tazawa. Many scouts regard the young right-hander’s raw “stuff” as better than that of the man now called “Dice-K,” and drafting him now would save a team from having to pay a possible nine-figure posting fee for him a few years down the road.

As for Tazawa, he would probably welcome the move across the ocean as there is a very strict rookie salary cap in Japan, and stateside he could easily command a bonus comparable to the 6.2 million dollars given to former FSU catcher Buster Posey by the San Francisco Giants.

If such a thing were to happen, however, it would be possibly disastrous for both MLB and NPB. The move would set a precedent for other talented, young Japanese players to forego the process of playing professionally in Japan at all and jumping directly to the Majors in the United States. The ripple effect could turn MLB into what is known in the sports world as a “Super League,” a single unified “Major” league in which all the truly talented players play, effectively turning all other professional leagues in the world into the minors.

Perhaps more importantly, Japanese league officials have made clear that the drafting of Tazawa would be viewed as an attack on Nippon Professional Baseball, representing the end of amicable relations between the two leagues. That would probably mean that talented professionals in Japan would not be “posted” before reaching free agency, effectively meaning that no Japanese pros would reach this continent prior to their thirties.

The Tazawa situation is not only about sports, but also politics and global economics, and has placed Allan Huber “Bud” Selig (MLB’s commissioner) in a rather tough position. Selig has generally let team owners do whatever they want with relative impunity, but this may be the issue on which he must put down his foot. If he does not, the same thing will happen in Japan that happened to the once-proud Negro Leagues: the talent will all leave, forced to choose financial security and fame over tradition and honor.