By Mike Trovato
If I had told you that one month into the baseball season, the teams from Florida would be ahead of the teams from New York in the standings, you would have looked at me like I was crazy. But sure enough, a look at the standings might make you think you’re crazy too. Seeing Tampa Bay ahead of the Yankees and the Marlins neck-in-neck with the Mets feels unnatural. And if you feel slightly crazy, imagine how it might feel to be a manager in the Big Apple right now.
Relatively speaking, both Joe Girardi and Willie Randolph’s managerial careers are in their infancy. The Yankees replaced Joe Torre with Girardi, who spent 2006 as the Marlins’ skipper and did a respectable job leading a team of no-name players (and the Miguel Cabrera show) to a 78-win season. That same season, Randolph’s sophomore year as Mets manager, the Mets dethroned the Braves from their 14-year perch as division champions.
Since the end of that ’06 regular season, the Mets came up one game short of the World Series, and fans now cringe when they hear “Yadier Molina.” The Metropolitans followed that up by tumbling out of the playoffs last season, leaving fans calling for Randolph’s head. Mets brass has yet to give Willie the axe, but should the Amazins falter again, Girardi could very well be the manager with the longest running tenure in New York by October.
Mets pitching, September’s disaster, has not been the problem thus far this season. New York ranks 4th in the majors in ERA, and 5th in opponents’ batting average against. The problem has been scoring runs; they are 22nd in the Major League Baseball , which could be a huge problem for them given the magnitude of power bats within their own division.
Last season the Mets swatted 177 home runs, 36 less than the Phillies, which translates to a difference of about 6 per month. In just one month this season, the Mets already trail the Phillies by 24 homers, a pace which would find the Mets 144 dingers behind them by the end of the year. Granted, home run hitting pace means very little over the course of one month, and frankly the chances that this drought of power will be a season-long trend are very unlikely. Yet, for those who were already sweating over Willie Randolph’s job security, you may want a change of clothes.
Now, there is such thing as an aberration when it comes to statistics. The type of aberration that saw David Wright go homerless with just 6 RBI in all of April 2007. The type of aberration that saw Jose Reyes bat .205 and steal just 5 bases last September. In reality, Reyes is a stolen base machine. Likewise, Wright is an RBI machine with pop, and David has been stellar so far this season. But when a player who has been great throughout his entire career falls into a slump that extends itself over months at a time, there is more reason for concern.
This seems to be the case with first baseman Carlos Delgado. The first signs of Delgado’s decline were his batting average, which was written off as “adjusting” to playing under the microscope that is the New York media. But as time rolls on, it is becoming increasingly evident by the day that the decline in his production has nothing to do with aberrations and everything to do with aging.
When the Mets traded young prospect Mike Jacobs to the Marlins for Delgado, they expected to be getting a cleanup hitter who would terrorize pitchers, belt 30-40 home runs, drive in 120, and be on base at a .400+ rate. Yet, long gone are the days of the monster RBI totals, and the fear instilled in pitchers upon hearing the phrase, “Now batting, Carlos Delgado.” He has only been intentionally walked 23 times as a Met, and is no longer a player that managers ask their aces pitch around.
Outside of his first year in Queens, when he hit 38 HR with 114 RBI, at this point Delgado is essentially being paid for his past. He is in the top 50 all-time in slugging percentage (.546- 30th), home runs (434-36th), OPS (.931- 36th), and intentional walks (171- 22nd). In his first two seasons since coming to the Mets, however, he has hit about .260, and his slugging dropped exactly 100 points from ’06 to ’07. Last year he hit just 24 home runs and drove in 87, the lowest full-season totals of his career. The 35 year-old has slid out of the cleanup spot and how hits 6th behind Ryan Church.
Among qualified first basemen throughout the league, here’s how Delgado measures up through his first 25 games this season: Delgado’s .196 batting average, .292 on-base percentage and .326 slugging percentage rank 24th, 24th and 26th in the league.
What makes it hard to see him decline so rapidly is that he has always been a classy player. Despite having a 2009 option on his contract, it may be in the Mets’ best interest to bring in someone else to play first base sooner rather than later. Having a guy to plug into the cleanup spot would move Carlos Beltran into a more natural spot in the order. Wright could slide back to the 5 spot where he was when Delgado arrived. Or, the Mets could go with Reyes-Wright-Beltran at the top of the order, Church staying at 5 and Luis Castillo providing speed in the 6 hole.
However you cut it, whatever lineup you devise, the point is that having that missing link would give Willie Randolph versatility. Whether it is playing lefty-righty matchups, or moving hitters like Beltran to where they are more comfortable, it would put Willie more at ease.
Most importantly for Randolph, the fans, and the city, it’s about winning. The Mets need to pull ahead not later, but now in the NL East, and Delgado is not the answer.