By Mike Trovato
In case anyone else hasn’t noticed, the 2008 baseball season hasn’t exactly started off the way fans have grown accustomed to in recent years.
The Royals, perennial cellar-dwellers since 2004, are tied with the White Sox for first in the AL Central. The Tigers were heavy favorites to win that division; they are 0-7. Baltimore, expected to finish last in the AL East behind the Rays (no more Devil), is tied for the best record in baseball at 6-1.
Swing the microscope to New York, where the in past 2 seasons the Mets opened strong and in first place out of the gates. But a look at today’s paper will show a sub-.500 record in the early going of 2008.
On paper, the Mets addressed their main need in the offseason by landing starting pitcher Johan Santana.
On paper, the Mets’ starting rotation should be one of the best, if not the very best in baseball.
On paper, they should be getting well over 100 home runs from the heart of their lineup (Wright, Beltran, Delgado, and Alou).
The reality however, is that all of these things that look good on paper are just that: good on paper. Sometimes what is good on paper doesn’t translate to the real world.
Allow me to have a bit of fun crunching some numbers.
When the Mets signed Pedro Martinez in 2005, he instantly became the face of the franchise – deservingly so, as Martinez brought to the table 3 Cy Young Awards and a World Series ring from Boston. With Johan Santana on board this year, Pedro became the Mets’ number 2 starter – a formidable 1-2 punch… on paper.
That lasted 12.1 glorious innings into 2008. Santana held up his end, striking out 8 in the season opener against the Marlins. Martinez, not so much. Pedro came up limping after delivering a pitch in the 4th inning of his first start, leaving Met fans saying, “Not again.”
But really, on paper, Pedro hasn’t been Pedro since his first year as a Met. After going 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA in ’05, Martinez has gone 12-9 and posted a 4.28 ERA in just 164 innings since. He is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a strained hamstring, and will likely be replaced by Jorge Sosa in the interim…
For those of you unfamiliar with the term “Seasonal Averages,” they are calculated by taking a player’s stats over the entirety of his games played, and dividing them into a 162 game schedule. According to Seasonal Averages, Moises Alou has played the equivalent of 11.9 full seasons. In a full season, Alou would theoretically bat .303 with 28 home runs and 107 RBI. His on-base percentage would be .369, which for a leadoff hitter would be fantastic, no less a heart-of-the-order player. Alou is being paid to be the Mets starting left fielder…. On paper.
In reality, Alou will probably never be an everyday player again. And what a shame, because Alou does have outstanding Seasonal Averages. There is no doubt that when he’s healthy, Alou can still hit. In 2007 he batted .341 in 87 games, and compiled a 30-game hitting streak along the way. Unfortunately, he hasn’t stayed healthy for a full season since 2004.
Between these two veterans, the reality is that Pedro is not the same pitcher he used to be, and Alou is showing every bit of his 41 years. Here’s where “on paper” meets reality. Here’s a chance to get a glimpse of the other talent that exists on this team. While I would never wish an injury on a Mets player, maybe this is a blessing in disguise. Case in point, Angel Pagan.
The injury to Alou opened the door for Pagan, a Spring Training sensation, who earned himself the starting job over established veterans Endy Chavez and Marlon Anderson. Jorge Sosa is nothing more than a stopgap in Pedro’s absence, but it is not beyond the realm of possibility that the Mets may have unlocked a hidden gem in Pagan, and may have a controversy on their hands when Alou returns from the DL. Having already compiled 5 runs scored, 6 RBI, and 2 doubles in 19 at-bats, Pagan (if he sees 500 at-bats) is on pace for about 132 runs scored, 158 RBI, and 53 doubles.
Of course, this is all just on paper.