By Noah Redfield

Predicting Oscar winners isn’t as challenging as it used to be because nowadays, the onslaught of preliminary award ceremonies even outnumbers World of Warcraft addicts. Once a pattern emerges in the number of trophies a given picture receives, usually the victors fall into place like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle. That said, one must never underestimate the Academy’s penchant for surprises, so no matter how confident I am in my predictions, there is no exact science that led to one choice over another. As William Goldman famously wrote in “Adventures in the Screen Trade,” “Nobody knows anything.”

Except one thing: Heath Ledger will win Best Supporting Actor. Every year, one actor stands miles above the competition to the point where they might as well not show up: last year, it was Daniel Day-Lewis, with Helen Mirren the year before that and now it is Ledger who will become the second actor in history to win an Oscar posthumously (the first being Peter Finch in 1976 for his performance in “Network”). While the track record of deceased actors isn’t particularly promising-James Dean had two consecutive chances and even he couldn’t win-none were nominated for a role as instantly iconic or as universally adored as Ledger’s Joker.

Continuing on the predictability parade is “Slumdog Millionaire,” which has been snapping up virtually every award known to civilized man (even the Nobel Peace Prize isn’t safe). Cynicism aside, the Dickensian fable is one of the few diamonds in the rough in a disappointing year for cinema that is 2008, and as such, it is no surprise that this little-picture-that-could has risen above the slums of underwhelming Oscar-bait mediocrity.

But obviously “Slumdog” can’t win everything, and if there’s one thing the Academy has demonstrated over the years, it’s that they like to spread the wealth amongst the other Best Picture contenders whenever possible. Expect “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” to reign supreme in categories like Visual Effects and Make-Up. It’s unlikely that the film to receive the most nods (13 in all) will go home empty-handed, and its technical achievements are far and away its most impressive qualities. The Best Actress race has its share of potential upsets like Anne Hathaway and Melissa Leo, not to mention Meryl Streep, but it’s the long overdue Kate Winslet who is poised to win the award for “The Reader.” Skeptics need only look to the film’s producer Harvey Weinstein, the Machiavelli of the Academy Awards whose track record includes “Shakespeare in Love” and “The English Patient.”

Then there is “Milk,” the astonishing true story of gay rights activist Harvey Milk which was conveniently released in the eye of the hurricane that was the backlash against Proposition 8. There is no way the Academy will pass up the chance to defend gay rights on live television-but the question is “how?” Sean Penn was the obvious choice for Best Actor until viewers were thrust into a steel-cage match with Mickey Rourke for “The Wrestler,” who made an unprecedented comeback with this largely autobiographical-albeit metaphorical-performance. The fact that Penn has won before and is openly endorsing Rourke for the win makes his chances slimmer every day. If he does lose, “Milk” will surely be honored for Best Original Screenplay. If not, the category is open to an upset, most likely from Martin McDonagh’s “In Bruges,” the sleeper of 2008 that has already developed a cult following. That leaves “Frost/Nixon,” the one Best Picture contender to be left in the cold unless Frank Langella can weasel his way past Penn and Rourke ‘Tricky Dick-style.’

The Oscars may be painfully predictable this year but not entirely without its merits. Heath Ledger’s win will surely bring the house down, and “Slumdog’s” victories should reaffirm one’s faith that you don’t need the system to make an inspiring and globally affecting work of art. The only real concern I have is thus: the joke about Robert Downey, Jr., as “the dude playing the dude disguised as another dude” was unfunny at the BAFTAs, was unfunny at the Critics Choice awards and will be spectacularly unfunny if repeated on Sunday. Drop it.

My Predictions:

Best Picture: “Slumdog Millionaire”

Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”

Best Actress: Kate Winslet, “The Reader”

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”

Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Christina Barcelona”

Best Original Screenplay: Dustin Lance Black, “Milk”

Best Adapted Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire”

Best Cinematography: Anthony Dod Mantle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

Best Editing: Chris Dickens, “Slumdog Millionaire”

Best Original Score: AR Rahmann, “Slumdog Millionaire”

Best Original Song: Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman, “WALL-E” (“Down to Earth”)

Best Animated Feature: “WALL-E”

Best Foreign Language Film: “Waltz with Bashir”

Best Documentary Feature: “Man on Wire”

Best Art Direction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Best Costume Design: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Best Visual Effects: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Best Make-Up: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Best Sound Mixing: “The Dark Knight”

Best Sound Editing: “The Dark Knight”