By By Ed Morrone
With December upon us, signs of the holiday season are beginning to sprout. People are decorating their houses, the Christmas tree in Rockefeller Center is lit and shoppers are beginning to snatch up gifts for their loved ones.
However, the biggest holiday present a sports fan is treated to this time a year is the beginning of college basketball season. From late November until March Madness, college teams across the country will be providing us with physical, hard-fought battles night in and night out. Fans have already been spoiled with two fantastic early tournaments featuring several ranked teams: the Maui Invitational (won by Connecticut, which also featured Gonzaga, Michigan State, Maryland and Arizona), and the Guardians Classic (victorious Texas, West Virginia, Iowa and Kentucky).
Thus college basketball, and not the holiday season, is the most wonderful time of the year. Keeping that in mind, here’s 10 observations/questions for the 2005-06 season.
10. Who will win the Big, Big East?
The Big East conference is just that now-big. Five teams were added (Louisville, DePaul, South Florida, Cincinnati and Marquette), while Boston College departed for the ACC. It is the biggest and certainly the deepest conference in college basketball.
Villanova was narrowly picked in the preseason Coaches Poll to win the conference, but that was before standout forward Curtis Sumpter went down with a season-ending injury. However, the Wildcats have a quartet of fantastic guards-seniors Allan Ray and Randy Foye, junior Mike Nardi and sophomore Kyle Lowry-that should keep a team that was one bad call away from defeating North Carolina in the Sweet 16 last year afloat. Connecticut may now be the team to beat. Rudy Gay is the best player in the country when he plays to his ability and he’s surrounded by a solid supporting cast and a Hall of Fame coach in Jim Calhoun. Louisville will be a top 10-15 team and West Virginia, Georgetown and Syracuse will be in the mix as well, but look for it to be a three-team fight between Villanova, UConn and Louisville.
9. How the mighty have fallen
North Carolina and Illinois, last year’s two national championship participants, will most likely not return to the promised land again this year. The champion Tar Heels lost their top five scorers to the NBA and will be in a rebuilding mode. Illinois is still ranked and has Dee Brown, but will not be the same without Deron Williams and Luther Head (both NBA) and Roger Powell (graduation).
8. Gonzaga is ready to make the leap
After being an annual tournament Cinderella for the past five or so years, the Zags are now on the opposite side of the tracks as one of the top teams in the country. The roster is stacked-Adam Morrison might be the best player in the country, Derek Raivio is an underrated point guard and JP Batista will try to make Bulldogs fans forget the departed Ronny Turiaf. They are legit.
7. The rise of mid-major programs
More than ever, March is becoming a time for smaller schools to rise up and knock off the big guns in the tourney. Gonzaga is accustomed to this, and there are other teams likely to do the same. Bucknell and Wisconsin-Milwaukee were the top stories last year and could be again this year, but look for other teams such as Old Dominion, Oral Roberts, Northern Iowa, Winthrop and Penn, among others, to be threats as well.
6. Who is the country’s best player?
This year, there’s no one dominant player that’s guaranteed a big game every night, as there has been in recent seasons (Jameer Nelson, Carmelo Anthony, Sean May, Andrew Bogut, Emeka Okafor, to name a few). Duke’s J.J. Redick (streaky shooter) and Shelden Williams (foul trouble) as well as UConn’s Gay (inconsistent) and Brown (undersized) are all up there, but right now it looks like Adam Morrison is the best player despite playing for a small school in a weak conference. Don’t sleep on Texas’ LeMarcus Aldridge and P.J. Tucker either.
5. Which Wildcats team (Villanova, Kentucky, Arizona) will go the farthest?
Definitely Villanova, who has the best group of guards in the country, so much so that the team will often play with four guards on the floor at the same time. The lack of a dominant big man is a setback, but the quickness and three-point touch of the guards will carry Nova deep into March, barring another injury. Arizona and Kentucky are both top 15 teams and are very talented, but are too inconsistent to make a serious run.
4. Is Duke as good as all the hype?
It doesn’t look like it, at least not right away. Redick and Williams are as good as it gets at their positions, but Duke becomes very beatable if either has an off night. Greg Paulus and Josh McRoberts are two of the best freshmen in the country, but they can’t be counted on this early. It’s a very talented Duke team, but not as good as the 1993 and 2001 teams that won national championships.
3. Which team will be hurt by the NBA Draft the most?
North Carolina, without a doubt. The Heels lost Sean May, Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants and Marvin Williams within the first 15 picks, going from a national champion to a huge question mark in one fell swoop. UNC might make the NCAAs, but fans shouldn’t expect them to repeat. Also, Wake Forest will miss Chris Paul, Illinois will miss Williams and Head, Syracuse will miss Hakim Warrick and Oklahoma State will miss Joey Graham.
2. Wide Open March
Unlike last year with Illinois and UNC, there is no consensus best team. The field for March Madness will be as wide open as ever this year, with several talented teams being good enough to win it all. Duke is talented, but beatable, Texas has the big guys, UConn can beat anyone if Gay takes over, Villanova has the phenomenal guards and Gonzaga has the talent, but will they be ready come March after playing cupcake teams from December-February? Teams such as Oklahoma, Louisville, Arizona, Michigan State, West Virginia, Boston College, Kentucky and Memphis will all be in the hunt as well. Simply put, the national championship is up for grabs.
1. National Championship Prediction
Ah, yes, the inevitable and pointless championship prediction. It will be a very premature prediction considering anyone can win it and match ups in the bracket will determine and throw off any major guesses. But the two strongest teams right now look to be Texas and Connecticut, with Michigan State and Villanova rounding out the Final Four. In the end, Texas beats Connecticut, 69-63.