By By Brian Bohl
Now that another election day has past, it is only three years until the people of the United States choose the next president. While anything can happen over the next thousand days, the Democratic Party should be in a prime position to increase its strength and shed the minority tag for the first time in a decade.
Before 2008 arrives, during next year’s midterm elections, the Democrats have an opportunity to cut into the GOP majority in the Senate. Should President Bush’s low approval ratings continue, it will be interesting to see how many of the 15 Republican incumbents will retain their seats in the upper house.
One of the seats that might become vacant is in Mississipi, where Senator Trent Lott, the former majority leader, could potentially retire after a 32-year career in Congress. While the state is catagorized as “red,” it is not impossible for the Democratic Party to win the election should the Republicans fail at finding a viable candidate to replace Lott. John C. Stennis was the last Democrat to serve Mississippi, which he did successfully for 42 years.
It’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking some southern states will only vote for a Republican candidate, but history has shown people’s afflilations are not exclusively tied to one political party. A perfect example of this is Missouri. The “Show Me State” is considered synonymous with GOP leadership, but check back to 1996, when Bill Clinton carried it for the second time on his way to victory
While erasing the entire 55-44 edge of the Republicans will probably not happen, the Democrats can take heart in at least knocking that number down and having a more powerful check against a Republican president.
The seats in the most jepoardy are in Montana, Ohio and Arizona. Those three states were firmly in the Bush camp in 2004, but could face a significant challenge next November.
Jon Kyl, the junior senator from Arizona, has also suffered from recent approval ratings that have fallen shy of the 50 percent mark. He may face Jim Pederson, the chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party who has shown the ability to effectively fundraise large sums of money. Pederson knows the political workings of the state. He helped Janet Napolitano win the govenor’s race and assisted Terry Goddard as he ran for attorney general.
In Ohio, one of the “swing states” in 2004, the hopes of the Republican Party rest on how well embattled Senator Mike DeWine rebounds from his current predicament. Controversy has engulfed the Ohio state government over financial scandals, which could leave room for change come election day 2006. Paul Hackett, a veteran of the Iraq war, narrowly lost to Republican Jean Schmidt in a special election for the House of Representatives this summer. While Hackett was a political novice at the beginning of the race, his campagin did draw national attention for staging a competitive race in a district that hasn’t had a Democratic challenger since the ’70s.
Montana may only have three electoral votes when choosing the president, but the state carries the same weight as the rest of the 49 in the upper house. For this reason, the reelection of GOP incumbent Conrad Burns is worth keeping an eye on. The veteran senator won his 2000 contest by only 3 percent, and current poll numbers have not been positive. His seat might change parties by next year.
Unlike local political races, senate campaigns often reflect how the country feels the United States is doing as a whole. If the situation in Iraq continues to worsen and the expectancy of economic growth does not come to fruition, voters could take out their frustration on the Republican Party, giving the Democrats the majority back or at least sending a message to Bush that Americans are no longer confident in the agenda set forth in his second inauguration address.