By Halil Cihan Ergul

Following the recent election, with more than 80 political parties and nearly 30 independent candidates, insurgency in Iraq continues at a fast pace. In the elections, the Shiite slate of 169 candidates apparently won the most votes. On the other hand, Kurdish votes in the north were captured by the Barzani-Talabani alliance. Based on this result, we can say that the political initiative toward a more autocratic North Iraq will be led by these two political figures. Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s secular Shiite party was also one of the favored parties of the election.

A simple election system was used in the polls. As the official results emerged, under the temporary constitution, the government should be established within one week. First, the Parliament will elect a speaker and two deputy speakers for the Chairmanship Council, and the council will appoint a prime minister. He will establish the government, which should have a simple majority.

In the new system, female candidates should constitute one-third of the list of each party participating in the elections. Meanwhile, parliament’s most important task will be preparing a new constitution by mid-August. The constitution will be submitted to a referendum, followed by the general elections. If it takes unexpectedly more time to prepare the constitution, they can extend the period by six more months. If two-thirds of voters in three provinces reject the constitution, they will have to go back to the drawing board. Kurds, who now control three provinces, have the right to veto. Sunni Arabs will also have the right to veto.

Apparently, Iraq’s future depends on the cooperation of Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish groups. For now, the probability of such an cooperation is slim. Therefore any assumption leaning on this outcome will most likely lead Iraq’s democracy attempt into a political failure. If Sunnis won’t be involved in the preparation of the new constitution, ending the violence will be difficult. In addition, if the Kurds take the oil rich Kirkuk, other groups in Iraq, along with neighboring countries, will be highly disturbed. For this reason, the United States is staying neutral in order not to rile up Kurds about, among other issues, Turkey’s concerns over Kirkuk. Attacks against local Iraqi police are continuing. Iraqi intelligence estimates that there are nearly 40,000 insurgents, with 160,000 Iraqis helping them. This makes it even harder to stop insurgency as there is a passive but strong sympathy to these groups in some part of Iraqi society. Among the insurgents, there are groups representing a political ideal to fight against U.S. troops along with gang groups who just seek to kidnap foreigners and ask money in return. Therefore, the insurgency in the region carries both a political and simple criminal identity. Even now, it doesn’t seem the United States has come to the terms with this insurgency. Thus, Iraq’s future following the elections doesn’t seem promising right now.

Our attention in the past a few weeks also has been focused on Iran and its nuclear program. Apart from the purely military aspects, there are some political factors influencing the United States’ decision on the Iranian nuclear program that Washington cannot ignore. Iran is one of the strongest countries in the region along with strong influence in the Middle East. The new political landscape of Iraq will bring more power to the Shiite society. This is definitely a new opportunity for Iran which is mostly Shiite to get closer to Shiite led Iraq. It is a serious question what kind of collaboration that can be, given that traditionally Iran’s opinion toward westernization is highly negative.

European diplomacy will try to solve the problem within the rules and tools of diplomacy, which definitely seem like a more rational way right now. Russia’s collaboration with Iran’s nuclear program should also be taken into account as Russia will apparently do her best to support Iran in spite of the United States’ concerns. But most importantly, any military operation against Iran will inevitably have the most negative consequences for the political situation in the region and for neighboring countries. It may also have an extremely adverse impact on the fight against international terrorism. In a few months we will most likely be able to tell whether this recent threat to Iran is a method of U.S. strategy maximizing the benefit by physically being in Iraq or a clear sign of next target to attack in the future.