Amidst continuing violent conflict, the German government has announced that all European companies contractually bound to Russian state-owned gas corporation Gazprom can continue making payments in the euro currency, after Putin said he would issue a law requiring gas supplies to be purchased in rubles. Gazprombank, the entity’s financial arm, remains unsanctioned by the West.
Rob Kapito, American businessman and president of multinational investment management firm BlackRock, declared to oil and gas executives on March 30th that “entitled” Americans will suffer the consequences of “food shortages and inflation.” BlackRock had previously hedged in favor of Russian markets after stock values crashed when the conflict began. However, they continue incurring enormous losses, causing Emerging Frontiers Fund – BlackRock’s subsidiary – to lose a tenth of its value. Their decision has backfired, according to Bloomberg.
BlackRock has amassed over $10 trillion in assets, breaking records earlier this year – more than the GDP of Germany and Japan combined, according to Jacobin[YP1] [NS2] . The United Nations has condemned the company for contributing to the global housing crisis.
Russian billionaires have been spotted in Turkey, including the “architect” of the privatization of Russia and influential figure in Russia’s dealings with the International Monetary Fund, Anatoly Chubais, who was caught withdrawing cash from an ATM in Istanbul, per Russian American journalist Yasha Levine and reporting from Kommersant. Roman Abramovich, an oligarch close to Putin, has moved his second superyacht to Turkey, where he maintains the ability to move money freely.
President Zelenskyy held hopes for a peace deal as the anticipated invasion of Ukraine seems more like a so-called “liberation” of Mariupol, Kharkiv and the Donbas Russian-backed city-states. Whether Putin will follow through is tentative to a halt of shelling that, as of the last week in March, has not stopped in Kyiv or other places where ceasefires were proposed. Viktor Orban, the far-right president of Hungary, has accused Ukraine of election meddling, saying that oppositional parties in his government have been in constant contact with Ukrainian officials.
Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mistotakis has met with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, asserting that they will “seek common ground” over the conflict, a move that I would have not thought possible given the fear of a full-on Eastern Mediterranean security blowout two summers ago. Sporadic movement and frightened calls from political figures and the hyper-wealthy in Russia, Ukraine and the West shows that something is shifting around in anticipation. We are left with declassified suggestions from the White House, originating from ambiguous “intel” informants who say that Putin is being misinformed, and that his advisors are compromised and unable to reason with him. New York Times columnist Bret Stephens ponders this,
“Who, if anyone, is advising him? Has he lost contact with reality? Is he physically unwell? Mentally? Condoleezza Rice warns: ‘He’s not in control of his emotions. Something is wrong.’ Russia’s sieges of Mariupol and Kharkiv — two heavily Russian-speaking cities that Putin claims to be ’liberating’ from Ukrainian oppression — resemble what the Nazis did to Warsaw, and what Putin himself did to Grozny.”
I find it hard to stop myself from moralizing, most times. Given the absurd nature of longtime Kremlin careerists gunning to Turkey and American backlash against sanctions coming from a venture capitalist who refers to the public as “‘entitled,’” it’s hard to conceptualize the material impact of Western politics and years of decaying, last-minute solutions to liberal failure that have led to destabilization. What we were afraid of happening is happening: Russia is not happy with NATO growth, and Putin has wrought consequences on the people of Ukraine. Yet, it is also important to state the obvious, apparently for New York Times columnists and public officials alike.
What Putin did in Grozny, Chechnya and what he is continuing to do by supporting the Kadyrov regime, is not equivalent to Hitler’s invasion of Poland. Just because two things are bad does not mean they are the same, and two things are not alike simply because they are both bad. The Russian Federation – not the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) – relies on an economic agenda more akin to perestroika, and its legacy of rapid, IMF-powered privatization, than a communist geography of rage to reclaim and rebuild the now defunct USSR. Believing in a glorious reclamation of Russia is an ideology that Putin wants you to ascribe to him. Putin is a modern dictator of a modern Russia, whose energy, agriculture, financial and defense industries are inextricably tied to ours; the supply chain does not discriminate against authoritarianism.
The wealthy and political class is scrambling, and despite the seemingly auspicious warnings of Rob Kapito, there will be more damage done; food will become more expensive and gas price hikes will not end, as the Russian market is too large to refill with the instantaneity that Western leaders demand.
