Hofstra University students took Twitter poll showing which way they plan to vote. // Photo courtesy. of Robert Kinnard.
The 2020 election looked quite different than previous years due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. There was a massive shift to mail-in voting and absentee ballots, causing President Donald Trump to question the integrity of the United States’ elections for months.
“This is going to be a fraud like you’ve never seen,” Trump said during the final presidential debate on Thursday, Oct. 22, claiming without evidence that mail-in voting is “ripe for fraud” and suggesting these ballots may be “manipulated,” according to the Associated Press.
Five states – Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Utah and Hawaii – already conduct their elections through a mail-in process, and their elections have proved to be “safe and secure,” the Associated Press reported.
“Voter fraud doesn’t exist,” said junior political science major Leilah Abelman. “If it does, it exists at rates so low as to be completely negligible. It’s being used mostly by the Republican Party as an excuse for voter suppression.”
Voter fraud is rare in the United States. An analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice found Americans are more likely to be struck by lightning than to commit voter fraud.
“Extensive research reveals that fraud is very rare, voter impersonation is virtually nonexistent and many instances of alleged fraud are, in fact, mistakes by voters or administrators,” reads a statement on the Brennan Center website. “It simply could not and does not happen at the rate even approaching that which would be required to ‘rig’ an election.”
To commit mail-in voting fraud, someone would have be “very creative” just like they would to execute in-person voter fraud, according to associate political science professor Craig Burnett.
>
““Democracy is fragile, [and] we’ve had the luxury that we’ve been a very stable democracy for a very long time, but it is fragile and statements like that really undermine the process.””
“If it’s an absentee [ballot], you have to actually go and request it and then somehow know which day the absentee ballot is going to arrive at that person’s address to go steal it out of their mailbox,” he said. “And then you’d have to match their signature, [and] in some states, you have to get a witness, [who] would then be committing fraud.”
In any given election, there are going to be a couple of cases where problems arise, but in Burnett’s experience there has not been “any more or less than [what] you would have in in-person voting fraud, which does occur, but it’s exceedingly low and quite frankly, most people get caught.”
The results of some elections have been taken all the way to the Supreme Court, like the presidential election of 2000 between Al Gore and George W. Bush. “I’m pretty much 100% expecting to see some kind of constitutional crisis,” said senior political science major Sarah Poirot in regard to the 2020 presidential election. “I absolutely think there’s going to be an issue this time especially because a lot of people are mailing in ballots as opposed to voting in person this year for COVID safety reasons.”
Voter fraud compromises America’s electoral integrity, which is key to democracy. Still, Trump continued spreading falsehoods about the security of voting and misrepresenting issues with mail-in ballots.
“Claiming voter fraud is massive and well before we’ve had an election is irresponsible, and I would say that about anybody,” Burnett said. “Democracy is fragile, [and] we’ve had the luxury that we’ve been a very stable democracy for a very long time, but it is fragile and statements like that really undermine the process.”
“[Trump] is wanting to either throw out some of the votes or put in some type of measures that will suppress certain votes … or he’s wanting to just not listen to the votes at all,” Abelman said. “All of that is very, very disruptive to democracy … it’s very damaging to democracy.”
The pandemic is expected to push back the release of full results in many key states. Only eight states expect to have at least 98% of “unofficial” results reported by noon on Wednesday, Nov. 4 and there are 22 states, including the District of Columbia, who allow postmarked ballots to arrive after Election Day, so the timing will depend on when voters return them, according to The New York Times.
As of Sunday, Nov. 1 more than 93 million Americans had already mailed in their ballots or voted early in person, according to data compiled by the United States Elections Project.
“State by state rules are different,” Burnett said. “Some states are allowed to start opening envelopes as they come in and start processing the votes.”
The means of voting preference vary between the two parties. “[On Election Day], there is this sort of concern out there that it’s going to look like a Trump landslide because his voters are going to be more likely to turn out and vote on Election Day,” Burnett said. “Democrats tend to prefer voting by mail, [so] you’re going to see this sort of huge Trump surge as the polls close.”
However, Democrats may gain ground as absentee votes are counted in the days after the election, according to The New York Times.
The next president of the United States will most likely not be revealed on election night. “Of course, if it’s a landslide, then it’s fine [to claim victory], but if it’s close – for the health of democracy – we need to be patient,” Burnett said. “We will have a definitive answer within a week.”
Others believe one week will not be enough time to confidently identify the next president. “We’re facing a very similar situation as we did in 2000 when the federal Supreme Court had to intercept state issues with voter recounts and things like that with mail-in ballots specifically,” Poirot said. “Considering the fact that I think that’s going to happen again … I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes closer to the end of November or Dec. 1 to find out who the president it, especially if it gets tangled up in legal stuff.”