The battleground states are key in deciding the 2020 presidential election. Experts project Pennsylvania will be one of the most important swing states in determining which candidate wins the election, alongside states like Wisconsin and Michigan.
“The fact that my county and cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh tend to lean blue, while the vast rural areas go red, definitely adds up to the state being a tossup,” said Gabby Luftschein, a sophomore film major who lived in Bucks County, PA.
Pennsylvania has historically been considered a battleground state due to its demography. The state’s metropolitan areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, also the most populous regions of Pennsylvania, have historically been Democratic strongholds. However, residents of the rural areas in the center and north of the state tend to hold conservative views and vote for Republicans.
“I have noticed that Pennsylvania is very divided,” said Eliza Moseman, a junior double major in television studies and production and fine arts, from Hamburg, PA. “There are parts of PA that are incredibly left-leaning and then there are places, like where I’m from, that are super right [-leaning].”
Pennsylvania was one of the few key states that President Donald Trump won by a margin of less than two percent in 2016, and its 20 electoral college votes put him over the top to achieve victory, according to The Washington Post.
Barack Obama won the state with 54.7% of the vote in 2008 and 52% of the vote in 2012. In a major upset, Trump was able to shift Pennsylvania just enough to the right, winning the state in 2016 over Hillary Clinton by only 0.7%.
“During the 2016 election, I was surprised when PA turned out to be a red state,” said Jenna Reda, a senior English, geography and global studies major from Hermitage, PA. “We had gone blue for the previous few elections, and I assumed we would again.”
Most current polls place former Vice President Joe Biden narrowly ahead of Trump in the Pennsylvania presidential race. Fifty-one percent of likely voters prefer Biden over the current president, according to a recent Quinnipiac University poll.
“I could see Trump winning because I feel like a lot of people who supported him in 2016, but don’t anymore, simply won’t vote instead of voting for Biden,” Moseman said.
Other students agreed there is a likelihood that Biden will win Pennsylvania. “Biden will win Pennsylvania based solely on younger voters,” said senior marketing major Ashlei Rivera from Buskill, PA. “Younger voters have had enough and want to see the state become more progressive.”
In Pennsylvania, voters between the ages of 18 and 29 have already cast more early votes than they did in the 2016 election. Nationally, 63% of young voters support Biden compared to 25% who support Trump, according to a Harvard Youth poll.
“I think, and hope, Biden will take Pennsylvania,” Luftschein said. “I feel like so many of us avid leftists from PA are finally of voting age in this election.”
“Younger voters are tired of how the state runs and it’s up to us to make the flip from a red state to blue [state],” Rivera said.
Both presidential candidates spent significant time campaigning in Pennsylvania. Biden focused much of his energy in the remaining weeks before the election on flipping the state blue. On Monday, Oct. 26 he made a surprise visit to a campaign office in Chester, PA to give a brief speech that mostly criticized the Trump administration’s COVID-19 response. Overall, Biden’s strategy has been to show supporters that he is taking the virus seriously by wearing a mask at all times and limiting attendance of in-person gatherings to only small numbers of people.
Trump, aware of the razor-thin margin by which he won Pennsylvania in 2016, has also campaigned in the state. On Monday, Oct. 26 he held a rally in Allentown, PA, where he spoke to a crowd of thousands of supporters, who were mostly maskless despite rising COVID-19 cases in the state and across the country.
Trump’s lack of compliance with COVID-19 guidelines may be bolstering his support with people in Pennsylvania who have disapproved of state Governor Tom Wolf’s COVID-19 policies, an issue that has become divisive along party lines. “Because our Governor is a Democrat, a lot of people may vote Republican because I have seen so many … disagreeing with his approach to COVID-19,” Moseman said.
Over two million Pennsylvania residents had already voted as of Thursday, Oct. 29, taking advantage of ballot drop boxes across the state, prepaid return postage on ballots provided by the government and in-person early voting. However, Pennsylvania law does not allow election officials to open mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day, and some counties have decided to wait until the polls close that night or even the next morning to begin processing ballots. The full results of the swing state’s presidential election, and by extension the national election, may not be known until many days after.
“I know it could really go either way,” Luftschein said. “The only way [either side] can win is ultimately to make sure our voices are heard with our vote.”