By Dave Diamond

“It’s going to happen one of these years,” a good friend alerted me midway through this week.

He was referring to the unthinkable reality that the New York Yankees, the epitome of sports franchises, might miss the playoffs.

My first reaction to this query was “that’s impossible,” yet there they sit, the Bronx Bombers, last place in the American League East. For the past 12 years, when one worries about the Yankees, it usually refers to the effectiveness of the fifth starter or poor defense at first base, minor problems for a baseball team so strong every season. When has there ever been a legitimate doubt that the Yankees would not qualify for the post season?

Yours truly was 9-years-old the last time this happened, 1993 if you ignore the strike season a year later, which is fair considering the Yankees were in first place when that season was cut short. As a graduating college senior, imagine my surprise when this friend of mine, a Yankee die-hard, seriously considered the lack of pinstripes in the 2007 playoffs. It would seem as if autumn were plucked from the calendar year.

The Yankees are 5 ½ games behind the Red Sox entering play Wednesday, four games under .500 and falling fast, physically and statistically. Not to mention an abysmal 3-11 against division opponents, most notably 1-5 against Boston. According to the team’s most recent injury report, six starting pitchers are mentioned, five of which on the DL, including Mike Mussina and Carl Pavano, two essential pieces to the rotation.

Never mind the starting staff, the bullpen is exhausted and ineffective, including the great Mariano Rivera, whom has recorded a lonely save thus far. They have made 18 errors in 24 games, six by the normally sure-handed Derek Jeter, and now the line-up that has scored the most runs in the league has gone cold when they need it most. Sure, the Yanks snapped to form with a 10-1 victory in Texas Wednesday night, but even the events in that game left the team shaking its head. Phil Hughes, the 20-year-old phenom that was supposed to cure the Yankee staff, pitches 6.1 no-hit innings and has to leave the game with a hamstring injury. He will not return for at least a month.

Historically, those things just do not happen to the Yankees. The last time they looked this poorly was the beginning of the 2005 season when they started 11-19. That year, Tino Martinez hit 8 home runs in as many games to quell the slump until Jason Giambi made his comeback, and Robinson Cano was brought up to solidify the second base position. That team rebounded to win the division, but can we expect that kind of emergence from this years floundering squad?

It is hard to imagine they will stay this ineffective. And it is harder to imagine they will remain so unlucky. But if the struggling continues after yet another “State of the Yankees” address by George Steinbrenner, when will chaos ensue? This past weekend Joe Torre’s job security was questioned, and this was only after April. The Boss’ vote of confidence aside, if Boston continues to pull away by mid-May, Torre could be packing his bags. The attention then might turn to the wild card, but with four legitimate contending teams in the Central, where will the Yankees stand?

It is far too early in the season to talk playoffs. But it is a wake-up call considering the team’s contention for a World Series appearance is the normal discussion, not reaching October in general. Alex Rodriguez is off to a sensational start, but until the pitching settles down this team is as mediocre as indicated this month.

Still, the fun has not nearly begun. Will Roger Clemens be the answer to this depleted rotation? Is Rivera at the end of his rope or will he return to “best closer in the world” status? Will Torre continue to butcher the bullpen and run himself out of a job? Or will Jeter and Rodriguez finally get on the same page and carry this team to a championship the way GM Brian Cashman had intended?

And what of Bobby Abreu and the oft-injured Johnny Damon, will they bounce back? And when will the boo-birds nest at Yankee Stadium if they don’t?

Oh, so many questions, and an entire summer to either witness history that Yankee fans will want to forget or a great team make another stamp on October baseball. Personally, I would imagine the Bronx will once again be open for business when the leaves change, but we all need to remember, “it’s going to happen one of these years.”