By Bob Bonett

A number of weeks ago, I wrote an editorial regarding the absurdity of Jimmy Rollins calling the Phillies the “team to beat” in the National League East. In that column, I analyzed position by position why the Mets are the best team in the East, albeit through some “blue and orange tinted classe,” as my dad accurately said. This week, I did not want to merely repeat what I wrote a few weeks ago. Thus, I will approach this piece slightly differently:

Why the Phillies WILL NOT win the National League East.The best way to attack this problem is address the Phillies where their opponents, the Mets, are weakest: the pitching staff. Clearly, the Mets may be in trouble this year in the rotation. Their ace, Pedro Martinez, may be out for the year, Tom Glavine and El Duque are nearly eligible for Social Security benefits, and the closest to a sure-thing the staff has is John Maine.

However, the Phillies fail to answer authoritatively. Freddy Garcia, the Phillies’ ace, has a not-so-impressive 4.53 ERA last year, enabling the opposition to hit .267 against him. The team’s No. 2, Brett Myers, while a talented pitcher, is an absolute head case. And while Cole Hamels admittedly has more upside than any pitcher in the game, Adam Eaton and Jamie Moyer end the rotation as a pair of aging question marks.

In the batter’s box is where the Mets shine, donning the likes of Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and Carlos Delgado, among others. Now don’t get me wrong, the Phillies do have some talent at the plate. Ryan Howard is the best power hitter in the National League, Chase Utley at times looks like a modern-day Rogers Hornsby, and the word out of Phillies camp is that Jimmy Rollins will be running circles around the base paths this year.

However, top to bottom, the Phillies fail to match-up with the Mets lineup. Pat Burrell and his .258 batting average in the middle of the lineup is nothing short of a disaster, Rod Barajas as a full-time catcher is an accident waiting to happen, Aaron Rowand has yet to prove he can produce offensively for an entire season, and Wes Helms and Shane Victorino, supposedly two of Philadelphia’s best kept secrets, have yet to show their stuff in a full-length major league season, something that should concern fans.

Now, let’s move on to the area all of you Phillies fans were hoping I would forget; Philadelphia’s relief corp. Razor-thin and unpredictable, the Phillies will be relying on their rotation to go deep into the game often this year.

In terms of closers, I have to give an edge to Wagner, although admittedly only a slight one. Gordon can perform and has performed, proving that he is in the top echelon of closers in the Major Leagues.

In terms of middle relief, though, where these two teams will be seeing quite a bit of action, the Phillies are simply not in the same league as the Mets.

Shea Stadium houses the best sixth through eighth inning guy in the majors, Aaron Heilman, a reinvented seventh inning situational pitcher in Pedro Feliciano, and perhaps the hardest thrower in the league, Ambiorix Burgos. Adding to that, the Mets will don Guillermo Mota, one of the best relievers in the Majors, for the second half of the year, and should see Duaner Sanchez return from injury once the season gets going.

Talk about deep.

The Phillies, on the other hand, don’t have such a luxury. Yes, Geoff Geary is the Scott Proctor of the Philadelphia Phillies: an extremely reliable innings-eater. However, Madson’s brief stint in the starting rotation ruined his confidence this year, and may have continuing ramifications on his ability to pitch this year. Also, Antonio Alfonseca probably does not deserve a job on an MLB franchise with his above-5.00 ERA over the past two years. The Phils do add Jon Lieber and Clay Condrey to that mix, but Lieber is more of a stopgap in games that have gotten out of hand than anything, and Condrey is a 31-year-old journeyman who’s 3.14 ERA last year is misleading, primarily due to the fact that he pitched in only 28 innings, and allowed his opponents to hit .318 off him. (Yes, .318).

With all of that evidence piled up, combined with the fact that no god would allow the Phillie Phanatic to be the last mascot standing in October, it appears that age old Philadelphia saying will live strong for at least one more season:

“Hey, there’s is always next year.”