With a surprise election less than two weeks away, voters across Canada are making their snap judgments for who the next pPrime mMinister should be. The choice that Canada makes in the weeks to follow could give insight into the political direction our own nation is taking.
Voters and along with pundits alike were surprised when current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called a snap election less than a month ago, a unique and often controversial power in parliamentary models. Snap elections are usually called when the PM’s party doesn’t have a governing majority in Pparliament but has a high approval rating,; two things which were true last month when the election was scheduled.
Since making the controversial move to call an election, Trudeau’s polling has slid, giving Conservative leader Erin O’Toole a slight lead, signaling that the Liberal Party’s plurality in Parliament may come to an end.
The political landscapes of Canada and the United States are often starkly different and while the conditions surrounding this election are unique, the various commonalities between our two nations could help give us a preview for what will lie ahead in our American elections.
Just as in the United States with President Joe Biden, one of the biggest controversies which have led to a shift in Trudeau’s popularity has been the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan. The messy and complicated exit strategy of Canadian forces from Afghanistan, along with its political fallout, haves caused Trudeau’s adversaries to question his international leadership and coordination skills. Despite Afghani withdrawal havingthe high public popularity of the withdrawal, Canadian and American discontent with the way the exit took place could be mark a major drawback political setback for the LLiberals and Democrats. A Liberal loss may signal that Democrats need to brace for more political setbacks and controversies over Afghan withdrawal.
Both Trudeau and Biden have held maintained strong approval ratings for their COVID-19 mitigation strategies, but as the dDelta vVariant rages on, both have seen their numbers slip. Along with heightened COVID-19 transmission rates, many Canadian analysts have predicted that far-right, anti-vaccinationx, and anti-mask voters could be the deciding swing in a Trudeau loss. A Liberal loss in Canada could indicate to Democrats that more action needs to be taken in stopping COVID-related issues from dominating the news cycle and, potentially being a cause of defeat in the midterms.
With these serving as major indicators of why a Liberal and therefore Democratic loss may be on the horizon, if Trudeau can pull off a victory, Democrats may not need to worry about these issues continuing to have a long-term hold on their further decreasing approval ratings.
While a Liberal loss or win could signal a lot to Democrats, a Conservative win could also give insight to a winning path for Republicans. Canadian Conservative lLeader Erin O’Toole has branded himself as an extreme moderate, even taking a more left-leaning position than Liberals on some issues.
O’Toole has taken a major stand (often in opposition to his own party) in supporting the expansion of social services, the promotion of diversity and inclusion, and even climate action. An O’Toole win could show Republicans that the ever bending far- right curve which grips the party is not necessary for a victory; in fact, a Conservative win could show that more moderate stances on things like deficit spending and climate action are paths to winning. With the two congressional infrastructure bills still facing conservative criticism, a Conservative win in Canada could make it clear that supporting a more liberal agenda is generally more popular.
With the Canadian election being the first major global election in a post-COVID- dominated world, which way the parliament swings could hint at the intentions of the voters in America. While the structures and systems of American and Canadian elections differ, in an ever-globalizing world, the issues which affect us the most, are often the issues that we share.
