By Stephanie Woodrow

The Democrats will not win the majority this November. Period.It doesn’t matter how angry people are at President Bush or how much the public is against the war, mathematically it isn’t going to happen. In all likelihood, the Dems will significantly close the 55-44-1 Senate gap and 232-201-1 House gap, but will not win enough seats to make House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) the first female speaker of the House or give Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) a new office.The Democrats will have to win 23 Senate seats to win the majority, or 22 if an Independent takes a seat. The likelihood? Slim. To begin with, the Democrats already have inter-party problems, with primaries for members seeking re-election.If people had to choose a single state to watch this fall, they’d have to pick Connecticut. What’s better than a man who won the popular vote for vice president in 2000 losing his Senate primary in 2006? Nothing! And to add insult to injury, Sen. Joseph Lieberman’s (D) decision to run on the Independent ticket in the general election just makes it look like the Democrats can’t control their members, which depending on political affiliations, might be a good thing.To give Democrats the benefit of the doubt, let’s assume they retain all of their current seats. They would still need a minimum of five seats, and more likely six, that are open or held by Republicans. Of the 15 Republicans running for re-election this cycle, only five of them are in tossup races.Jim Talent’s (Mo.) challenger is Claire McCaskill (D), who ran for governor in 2004, and only lost by three points. Yes, losing is losing, but Talent only won his special election in 2002 by one point. Even though Missouri leans Republican, constituents have no problem voting in a Democrat they prefer.Only in a state as conservative as Montana could somebody like Conrad Burns (Mont.) keep being elected. From his connections to disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff to his “hick-cred,” Burns can’t help but screw up. Looking for his fourth term, Burns is being challenged by state Senate President Jon Tester (D), who is a little more liberal than Montanans like. Majority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) also shouldn’t be worried about rushing to the printer for new business cards. To gain the majority, the Democrats will need 218 seats. Unfortunately for the Dems, only about 40 seats are still considered in play. Even though the Democrats have more safe seats, about 185 to the Republicans’ 176; the Republicans have the advantage of about 41 seats which are likely to go to the right, while there are about 19 the Democrats are likely win. Although this still leaves 14 seats as tossups, Pelosi’s team will have to take them all if she wants to move offices.With Rep. Bob Ney (R) giving up his seat after pleading guilty to federal corruption charges related to the Abramoff scandal, the Democrats see a chance in the Ohio 18th to pick up a seat. State Sen. Joy Padgett (R) is going to attempt to keep the seat for Republicans and hold off Zack Space (D).The Illinois 6th District race has received more press than any other congressional race this cycle (well, after ex-Rep. Tom Delay (R) and his Texas 22nd seat). Tammy Duckworth (D), the Iraq War veteran who lost her legs in combat, has received enough attention to win this race against state Sen. Peter Roskam (R), despite her lack of political experience.Besides the arguably hottest Senate race this fall, Connecticut also has two of its five congressional seats making the tossup list. Rep. Rob Simmons (R) of the 2nd District is facing ex-state Rep. Joe Courtney (D) and the 4th District’s Rep. Christopher Shays (R) is running against Diane Farrell (D).Other tossup races this fall include the Florida’s 22, where Rep. Clay Shaw (R) has (barely) managed to hang onto his seat. Of Indiana’s nine districts, three of them are tossups this November with Reps. Chris Chocola (R), John Hostettler (R) and Mike Sodrel (R) all facing tough re-election campaigns.Rep. Heather Wilson (R) will face state Attorney General Patricia Madrid (D) this fall, after the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent months begging Madrid to enter the race. Residents of the Pennsylvania 6th may regret not voting for Lois Murphy (D) in 2004, and now is their chance to fix it as she challenges Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) again. The final Representative on the tossup list is the Virginia 2nd’s Rep. Thelma Drake (R). Her challenger is Phil Kellam (D), whose father, grandfather and uncle were all popular local politicians, which could hurt Drake, although she hasn’t done anything to upset her constituents.In other words, people can choose to hate the President, donate to the DCCC and protest the war, but it’s still not changing the outcome this November. Better luck in 2008.Stephanie Woodrow is a senior print journalism major who previously worked for the Congressional newspaper, Roll Call.