By Matthew G. Bisanz
Like almost every news pundit, I’ve decided to burn my first 2008 election column. With less than 1,000 days until the next election, I have decided to talk about the issues that will be the focus of the 2008 contest, before every other Chronicle reporter fills this page with similar sounding columns.
Privacy: Privacy will rear its head in at least two forms in the 2008 election. The first is the debate over abortion. Does a woman have the right to privacy regarding what she does with her body? While the Constitution does not explicitly address this issue, judges have over time slowly read this right into the invisible fabric that is Constitutional interpretation. Obviously, anything this vague engenders debate. To settle things once and for all I will say that whoever he may be, the Republican candidate will at least be publicly anti-abortion, whereas the Democratic candidate will vacillate between being pro-abortion and trying to avoid that topic whenever possible.
I use the masculine pronoun “he” only because every previous major party presidential candidate has been a man. This is something that might change in the 2008 election. Men have never represented more than 50 percent of the population, but have held the presidency–we are long overdue for a change. Hilary Clinton has all but announced her candidacy, and it is likely that Condi Rice, Elizabeth Dole or Carolyn Mosley-Braun will join her in the coming months. While I think most of America is willing to elect a female president, the issue of minority representation is another story.
The second privacy issue will come in the form of spying. With President Bush saying he has the right to spy on Americans in the name of terrorism without consulting the courts, the issue of privacy will remain prominent through 2008. This is because one of the most basic rights of Americans is the right to freedom from unlawful search and seizure. This right is enumerated in the Bill of Rights under the fourth amendment, which states in part “no warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.”
With President Bush’s continued argument that there is no need for warrants, it will be interesting to see if the Republican candidate follows his lead. This issue of privacy, combined with the Libby and Abramoff will tilt the elections strongly against any Republican who attempts to use “experienced politician” platform.
Economy: The economy will be another major issue in the 2008 election. The average literacy rate has not risen in 10 years, and the number of un-skilled and semi-skilled jobs has fallen due to increases in productivity and outsourcing. Further, in the last five years the national debt has increased over two trillion dollars. This may be permissible in a growing economy, but the United States is near its Hubbert Peak as far as economic production is concerned.
Over the last century, the birth rate of the U.S. has steadily declined. As a result, there are fewer workers per retirees than ever before. This combined with higher and higher debt service costs will eventually create structural problems. Further, as any smart politician thinking about running in 2008 knows, most people who vote are older citizens. Despite Sean Combs’ “Vote or Die” campaign, very few young people vote. Older citizens are concerned with higher medical costs and keeping Social Security secure. Therefore, I predict none of the 2008 candidates will attempt to reduce Social Security benefits, nor will they attempt to reign in the ever-spiraling Medicare costs.
Diversity: In the 225-plus year history of the republic, the closest America has come to electing a minority president was either the Dutchman Martin Van Buren or the Catholic John F. Kennedy. Therefore, America has missed out on the potential of all those who aren’t of Northern European ancestry.
However, as with all hot button issues, views on diversity are not evenly spread across the American public. A friend told me a story of a trip she took to a conference in the South, where the hosts assumed she was a waitress because of her African-American heritage. Therefore, while pure statistics would predict that one of the 2008 candidates be a woman or a minority, any non-WASP is still likely to face considerable adversity in the political arena.
Security: For the last four years America has been involved in the war on terror. Almost every action by President Bush has been taken in the name of getting the terrorists. Be it imprisoning enemy combatants in Guantanamo Bay, or funding the invasion of Iraq, the President has spent billions in order to increase the security of this nation.
However, eventually the point of diminishing returns and resource exhaustion are reached. At some point the cost of fighting terrorists actually outweighs the damage those terrorists will cause. That exact cost is unknown, but it appears to be the difference of the cost of invading Afghanistan to eliminate terrorist training bases and the invasion of Iraq to protect Saudi oil.
On a larger scale, resource exhaustion becomes the issue. At some point so many resources are devoted to fighting the terrorists, the nation is unable to maintain its economy. This point appears to be on the horizon as the latest budget cuts many social programs necessary for the nation and spends more on defense costs in Iraq. Therefore, the candidates in 2008 will have to decide whether or not to scare the Americans with ideas of terrorism or instead focus on the infrastructure of the nation. To put a Machiavellian twist, is it better to make the people afraid of terrorists or responsibly manage the economy? Since it’s easier to scare people with slogans than to inform them about issues, I predict the former over the latter. Stay tuned for more.