The Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs released its inaugural nationwide poll during a panel hosted by Hofstra on Thursday, Nov. 14. The poll asked likely voters about their preferences for the 2020 presidential election and the state of national affairs.

“It was very impressive to see the different results on the different issues,” said David O’Brien, a sophomore political science major. “It’s a real long way to go until the elections, but it was interesting to see how voters react on different issues at this time a year out.”          

The poll sampled 1,500 likely voters across the United States, with suburban voters comprising most of the sampling (1,000 respondents). Hofstra teamed up with YouGov, an online survey research firm, to draw a sample group of respondents from its panel of two million Americans to conduct this poll.

“Today’s panel on the first Kalikow School poll was very instructive about the candidates, their policy positions and the current debate over the impeachment inquiry,” said Meena Bose, a political science professor at Hofstra and the director of the Peter S. Kalikow Center for the Study of the American Presidency. “We learned a lot about what likely voters are thinking a year before the election, what their stances are on policy issues, which are important not just for the election but when we get into the policy-making debates after the election on immigration, health care, the economy and instructive about how important the current inquiry in Washington is today.”

Craig Burnett, an associate professor of political science and the Kalikow poll program director, gave a PowerPoint presentation discussing the methodology and results of the Kalikow Poll. After the presentation, the panel engaged in an in-depth and lively discussion about the poll’s findings before taking audience questions. The panelists particularly discussed what the results said about the suburban vote for the 2020 elections.

 An audience of students, faculty and community members attended the presentation and panel moderated by Bose; Burnett; Emily Ngo, a journalist at Newsday and Lawrence Levy, Vice President for Economic Development and Professional Studies and Executive Dean of Suburban Studies at the National Center for Suburban Studies.

 According to the poll created by Hofstra and YouGov, President Donald Trump has an approval rating of 49% among all likely voters, with his approval rating being 47% in suburban areas, 37% in urban areas and 58% in rural areas. Ninety-four percent of all Democrats disapprove of the president’s job performance, while 90% of Republicans give Trump positive reviews. Fifty-four percent of independents approve of Trump’s job performance.

The poll included data on relevant topics including impeachment, minimum wage, the income gap and preferences for candidates running for presidential nomination.

 When measuring Democratic candidate preference for the presidential nomination, 27.5% of Democratic voters supported former Vice President Joe Biden, 26.6% supported Senator Elizabeth Warren and 12.3% supported Senator Bernie Sanders. South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg received 8.1% of voter support. The rest of the primary field received less than 5% of the preference vote, according to the Hofstra and YouGov poll.

In what was described as surprising during the panel, the poll indicated noticeable support for immigration enforcement policies. When asked about border security measures for immigration in the United States, 41% of respondents indicated that they should be a priority. This included 40% of suburban respondents and 45% of independents. On the other hand, 29% indicated that a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants should be the top priority, including 32% of suburban respondents. Thirty percent of respondents, including 28% in the suburbs, felt both should be prioritized equally.

Despite this, the poll data also displays significant support for liberal policy objectives, which is highly prevalent in the suburbs. Suburban respondents overwhelmingly felt that the federal minimum wage should be over the current rate of $7.25, and over half of these same respondents felt that the income gap between rich and poor people needs to be reduced.

“If you couple that with how they feel about their own personal finances, I think it reflects a lot of insecurity, even though this has been a good economy, that people don’t necessarily feel secure about the future, and they think that government should be doing something,” Burnett said.

There is also broad ongoing interest in the current impeachment inquiry against the president in the House of Representatives. Democrats voted 92% supporting the ongoing inquiry, while 84% of Republicans were opposed. The numbers on impeachment correlate closely with the president’s overall approval ratings, suggesting a partisan debate over impeachment and the president himself.

“I thought it shared a lot of details about […] why people are supporting impeaching Trump, and also what polls could mean later on in the future,” said Jesse Lindell, a junior journalism major.

”This is not my mother and father’s suburbs anymore. I have kids in [their] thirties, and it’s not even their suburb anymore,” said Levy. “The pace of demographic change has been and is continuing to be very rapid … so the myths of wealth and wellness … contribute to a lack of understanding, and you see it in political campaigns.”

Hofstra University and the Kalikow Center will release their next poll in March of 2020, after the “Super Tuesday” primaries on Tuesday, March 3.