The Department of Political Science presented “The State of the Union: An overview of the context of the election: demographics and policy issues,” a talk by Richard Himelfarb, professor of political science, at Hofstra University, on Thursday, Oct. 17. 

The discussion, held in the Guthart Cultural Center Theater, addressed a few central questions, asked by Himelfarb: “First, how are we doing? Second, how are we feeling about this country? And third, what does this all mean for the 2020 elections?” 

Median income has been increasing, even under President Donald Trump.

• Wage growth has accelerated during the Trump presidency.

• The United States has the lowest unemployment rates since 1969. “We’re basically at what I think many economists consider full employment, 3.5%,” Himelfarb said.

• Poverty has declined.

• The crime rate is down from 25 years ago in terms of crime statistics, but the public perceives the “country as unsafe.”

• College enrollment is increasing among low income groups.

• Teen birth rate has steadily declined. “We have fewer children having children,” Himelfarb said.

“I look at those measures and I say, ‘Hey, you know, we’re going in the right direction,’” said Himelfarb. “So, why is everybody in such gloom and doom about everything?”

“[Himelfarb’s] point that the economy is actually doing really well resonated with me the most,” said Darian Nusser, a freshman political science major, who attended this lecture to hear the professor’s take on the state of the country. “When Donald Trump won the election, everyone around me was scared for the economy, and we aren’t doing as bad as we thought we would be doing when Trump was elected. I wish a larger number of the population knew that.” 

Sophomore journalism major Ryan Gineo chimed in, adding that there are still many problems with the country, but that “we could be off a whole lot worse.” Americans are in a “foul mood,” Himelfarb said, because they are “pessimistic about the present and pessimistic about the future.”

He said it is important to note that this did not all start with President Trump. “I think there’s a sense in the country now that everything was a certain way and then Donald Trump changed everything,” Himelfarb said.

Himelfarb noted that this pessimism precedes Trump and existed during the Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama administrations. “There are a lot of people who think, at some level, the country’s broken.”

This mindset is “historically not American” because Americans are supposed to be “optimists and believe that tomorrow is better,” Himelfarb said. This idea of optimism, however, has been abandoned, now leaving the U.S. with the problem that “we disagree as to [what the] priorities [are],” especially among Republicans and Democrats, he added. 

In 2019, the listing of Republicans’ top priorities include terrorism, the economy, social security, immigration and the military; whereas Democrats are prioritizing healthcare, education, the environment and Medicare for the poor and the needy. 

“At this point, we can’t even get together exactly what the problems are,” Himelfarb said. “We’re kind of talking past each other, and then we have this huge division on priority.”

Then there are some problems that are not even being talked about, argued Himelfarb. These, he said, include “federal debt, the declining percentage of two-parent families and declining life expectancy in the United States.”

There is a “ginormous partisan divide” in how people view President Trump, Himelfarb said, adding that Trump is no exception, as all presidents have experienced criticism. 

What does this all mean for the 2020 election? Himelfarb discussed whether President Trump might or might not win reelection. “The argument is that, first of all, he’s got the power of incumbency, and the fact of the matter is incumbent presidents don’t lose.”

The next issue is the Democratic nominee. “Democrats are under a lot of pressure to pick the best candidate to beat Trump,” Gineo said. “It doesn’t have to be the candidate that best represents the party, it has to be the one that can beat Trump.”

“Currently, a young person sitting in office would not be feasible,” Himelfarb said. 

Stanley Weinstein, adjunct professor in the Zarb School of Business at Hofstra, does not want someone sitting in the White House who is like him. “This is 2020, I don’t want a 75-year-old sitting in the White House who still uses the record player,” he said. “I want someone who thinks young and wants to move things forward, who wants to try and bring this country together, which is virtually an impossibility because it will never happen; but [who] at least thinks along those lines and has an international global posture.”